Anyone can sound confident. Almost no one publishes a dated, falsifiable call before the outcome and grades themselves against reality — misses and all. We do. This is the scoreboard.
Every call is published with a timestamp before it resolves — so it can't be edited after the fact. Open calls show the date they went live.
A well-calibrated 65% call that misses is still a good call. We Brier-score how honest our confidence was — being right about your uncertainty is the whole point.
Discovery asks up to 13 hard questions, then stops and decides on what's knowable — a human drew that line. Each call shows the assumptions it committed under. Misses are shown in red, never buried.
The calls we've committed to publicly. As Discovery + the panel run each one, the call and confidence are filled in; as the resolution date hits, the outcome and score post — win or lose.
| The call | 3Dogs' call | Confidence | Resolves | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the FOMC change the federal funds rate at its next scheduled meeting?Macro | pending run | — | Next FOMC | Open |
| Will the S&P 500 close above its committed level on the last trading day of August 2026?Markets | pending run | — | 2026-08-31 | Open |
| Will OpenAI publicly release a model branded "GPT‑5.6" or higher before Sep 30, 2026?AI | pending run | — | 2026-09-30 | Open |
| Will Nvidia's next quarterly report beat consensus revenue?Earnings | pending run | — | Next report | Open |
| Total wildfire acreage in Lincoln County, NV for the 2026 season (vs. our forecast band).Climate · already live | forecast on file | see case study | ~2026-10-01 | Open |
| Will Bitcoin trade above its committed level at any point before Aug 31, 2026?Crypto | pending run | — | 2026-08-31 | Open |
| Will the next US jobs report show unemployment above/below the committed threshold?Macro | pending run | — | Next report | Open |
Board seeding in progress — the exact levels/dates are pinned when each call is run, and the confidence + outcome post as they resolve. This page updates as receipts accrue. First supporting evidence: the Lincoln fires forecast (calibration + resolution scorecard) and the Enron blind investigation (backtest).